empty
14.03.2025 03:06 PM
A New Problem Rises for America – The Debt Ceiling (Expecting #SPX and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Likely Short-Term Recovery)

The confrontation between the U.S. and the EU has entered a new phase. The U.S. president is taking a hardline approach toward Europe, effectively following a "tit for tat" strategy. After the EU decided to impose retaliatory tariffs, setting a 50% duty on U.S. imports of alcohol and other goods, Trump responded with a 200% counter-tariff. This escalating trade war between the U.S. and Europe has reached almost absurd proportions, yet its consequences are having a serious impact on investors and global financial markets.

Current investor sentiment toward geopolitical developments is clearly reflected in the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds, which have stabilized in yield amid extreme uncertainty about the future direction of U.S. policy. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has hovered just below 4.3% since early March, reflecting market indecision.

The Debt Ceiling: Another Risk for the Markets

Beyond trade wars, another major uncertainty is looming over the markets—the unresolved debt ceiling issue. Under Joe Biden's administration, this problem was simply resolved by raising the ceiling, but Trump's administration may not follow the same approach. Trump came to power not only with the slogan "Make America Great Again" but also with promises to implement a more responsible economic policy, aiming to cut government spending.

Amid this backdrop, some market voices are already warning of a potential U.S. default as early as this summer. If this scenario materializes, the U.S. economy could face severe financial pressure, leading to a decline in demand for American stocks. In such a situation, stock indices could suffer significant losses, and even a slowdown in inflation or a 0.25% Fed rate cut might not be enough to provide support.

If this issue remains unresolved and a U.S. default becomes inevitable, the S&P 500 broad-market index could plunge to the 4,000-point level—a key level from which the index rallied in spring 2023, driven by the attractiveness of U.S. assets amid the war in Ukraine and rising global geopolitical tensions.

What to Expect in the Markets Today?

The trade war narrative is likely to dominate the markets once again. After a possible short-term recovery in U.S. equities today, the market is likely to resume its decline. Neither lower consumer inflation nor slowing producer price inflation—which could support a 0.25% Fed rate cut—are likely to offset the uncertainty surrounding trade wars, the Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. debt ceiling issue. Investors are expected to remain highly cautious.

In this environment, gold prices will likely continue to rise, along with the U.S. dollar, while demand for cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure, along with crude oil prices.

Daily Forecast:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

#SPX

The S&P 500 CFD contract may receive temporary support, rising toward 5,645.00 as traders lock in previous gains. However, a potential reversal to the downside could follow, leading to a drop toward 5,500.00.

#NDX

The NASDAQ 100 CFD contract could also receive temporary support, climbing to 19,740.00, driven by expectations surrounding U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine. However, the index may then reverse downward, with a potential decline toward 18,945.00.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin huye de la criptocapital del mundo

Donald Trump prometió hacer de América la criptocapital del mundo, pero ¿quién necesita una capital de la que todos huyen? Las peores liquidaciones de empresas tecnológicas desde 2022 entristecieron

Marek Petkovich 11:54 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. La recuperación de los precios del petróleo está limitada

Hoy, el petróleo ha intentado recuperarse desde los niveles más bajos observados desde septiembre de 2024. Sin embargo, la recuperación no puede considerarse positiva en el corto plazo. Los inversores

Irina Yanina 10:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio están estancadas

Según informes de los medios, las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio y otros asuntos se han estancado en niveles bajos, ya que ambas partes no logran entenderse

Jakub Novak 07:59 2025-03-11 UTC+2

El gas sigue subiendo rápidamente de precio

Las cotizaciones del gas se han consolidado de manera firme por encima del nivel de $4, y en este momento no hay razones para el regreso del mercado bajista

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:07 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de marzo. La libra esterlina sigue subiendo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista el viernes. El paquete estadístico estadounidense no fue lo suficientemente fuerte, lo que completó el cuadro general del desastre del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de marzo. ¿Cuánto tiempo más bajará Trump el tipo de cambio del dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD, naturalmente, siguió subiendo durante el viernes. Esta vez el mercado tenía buenas razones para vender el dólar, pero recordemos que durante toda la semana pasada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de marzo. El mercado se está salvando. Se está salvando de la política de Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD sumó unos 80 puntos el martes, y 120 puntos un día antes. Por su parte, el dólar cayó en su cotización casi 200 puntos

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 5 de marzo. ¿Corrección alcista o cambio de tendencia global?

El par de divisas EUR/USD subió 110 pips el lunes, y el martes subió otros 60 pips antes del inicio de la sesión americana. La subida del euro

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.