Analisis Forex & Kajian: 18.06.2024 - The pound may resume growth....

18.06.2024 12:44 AM

The pound may resume growth. Overview of GBP/USD

The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting on June 20, and the rate is expected to remain at the level of 5.25%. This meeting will not be accompanied by updated forecasts, so the market may show a somewhat muted reaction.

Since the previous BoE meeting, macroeconomic indicators have generally been slightly better than expected – GDP growth in Q1 increased by 0.6% against a forecast of 0.4%, and wage growth remained high, aided by a recent increase in living wages. Inflation data for May will be published on Wednesday, revealing a significant disparity between the services and goods sectors. Prices for goods was in negative territory in April, while prices in the services sector are slowly decreasing, having fallen to only 5.9% in April, which is still quite high.

After the announcement of early elections in the UK, all speeches by Committee members were canceled, so there are no comments, and markets are relying on their own forecasts. The Conservative Party is highly likely to lose the elections to the Labour party, which would allow for a review of the budget and rate outlook. Markets are currently anticipating the first rate cut in August and will be looking for confirmation of their forecasts on Thursday, with a 60% probability of another cut this year. Two BoE cuts would correspond to two Federal Reserve rate cuts, and these expectations are already priced in, so there are no grounds for significant movements at the moment.

The pound is one of the few G10 currencies for which investors continued to accumulate long positions against the dollar. According to CFTC data for the reporting week, the net long position increased by $0.4 billion to $3.9 billion. Despite this, the price, primarily due to the bond market, has lost momentum and is trying to turn downwards, although it remains well above the long-term average.

A week ago, we expected the pound to rise further, but the pair followed the general trend and retreated after reaching a 3-month high, just shy of the resistance at 1.2892. The pullback was deep; however, there are few grounds for further decline unless May's inflation data brings surprises. We expect the pair to trade sideways until Wednesday, with the BoE's meeting on Thursday providing clarity on rate forecasts, after which the pound may resume its upward movement. The closest target is still the local high of 1.2892, and moving towards the next resistance at 1.3040/60 will require at least one strong factor, which may appear this week.

It's also important to consider the possibility that the Committee may take a more dovish stance, which could be reflected in the number of votes for an immediate rate cut (currently projected: 7 for maintaining the rate and 2 for an immediate cut). If this happens, the pound could become weaker and consolidate below 1.2630/45, aiming for 1.2580.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Kuvat Raharjo,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Faktor Ketidakpastian Akan Memberi Tekanan kepada Dolar dan Menyokong Permintaan untuk Aset Perlindungan (Terdapat kemungkinan penurunan lanjut dalam USD/JPY dan peningkatan harga emas)

Pasaran Ingin, Tetapi Ragu-ragu

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 14 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Pratonton Mingguan EUR/USD: Pentas Terus Beraksi

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD. 14 April: Pound British Masih Menjadi Tebusan Dolar

Tinjauan EUR/USD. 14 April: Dolar—Dari Peneraju Menjadi Yang Peling Merosot

Dolar AS: Pratonton Mingguan

BCE Mungkin Memotong Kadar Faedah Dua Kali

AUD/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasaran Menghadapi Tempoh Ketidakstabilan yang Berpanjangan (USD/JPY dan USD/CHF Dijangka Terus Menurun)

Analisis terbaik