Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also showed no interesting movements on Friday. Like the euro, the British pound remained very close to a flat range. However, the British currency still maintains a slight upward bias. The pound shows excellent resilience against the dollar and hardly declines against the U.S. currency. For most of last week, we also observed total flat trading with low volatility. Trump took a week-long pause from introducing new tariffs and sanctions, and important reports, such as business activity and durable goods orders, did not interest the market. Thus, the next movement can be expected when Trump delivers a new informational bomb to the markets. Recently, Trump has started to soften his rhetoric toward China and has assured that future relations between the countries will be excellent and that a trade deal will undoubtedly be reached. Meanwhile, China stated that it is not conducting negotiations with Trump.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, the price first consolidated below the 1.3289-1.3297 area, then above it, and later bounced off it four times from the top side. The maximum movement of the pair after the buy signals was approximately 25 pips. Thus, it was challenging to earn profits on Friday due to the lack of movement, but serious losses were also unlikely.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

In the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downward trend long ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, so the pound continues its steady upward climb. Thus, future movements of the pair continue to depend only on the American president and his decisions. Perhaps the market's attitude toward news will begin to change in the future, but nothing of the sort is observed.

The GBP/USD pair may move sideways on Monday with a slight upward bias. The market has again demonstrated that it is not ready to buy the dollar until the global trade war de-escalates. Therefore, a sideways or upward movement should be expected.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade between the levels 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3289–1.3297, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, and 1.3580–1.3598. No significant events are scheduled for Monday in the U.S. or the U.K. Therefore, it is unlikely to expect strong, trending movements today. However, one should remember that Trump could provoke a "market flight" anytime.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.