empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
09.09.2024 12:43 PM
USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/CAD pair is trying to continue building on its Friday gains. Crude oil prices are also trying to gain positive momentum, moving away from the lowest levels seen in 2023.

This supports the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, limiting the pair's upward potential. OPEC+ has postponed plans to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day until December. However, it has not managed to calm the market regarding global supply due to concerns about a slowdown in oil demand from China, the world's largest crude oil importer. Additionally, the potential for a hurricane along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. refining capacity, is impacting both the oil market and the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.

The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weaker employment data from Canada, which was released on Friday, increasing hopes for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. This, in turn, supports the short-term positive outlook for the USD/CAD pair, bolstering the prospects for further intraday gains.

On the U.S. dollar side, Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report provided clear evidence of a significant deterioration in the labor market. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added 142,000 jobs in August compared to the expected 160,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 89,000.

According to other details of the report, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July, and wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly earnings, rose to 3.8% from the previous 3.6%.

All of this data has reduced the likelihood of a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve (50 basis points) at the upcoming meeting scheduled for September 17-18. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month, with a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

This has naturally led to a modest rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and along with a softer risk tone, it helped the U.S. dollar extend its Friday rebound from last week's low. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S. temper investor appetite and benefit the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Today, Monday, no significant economic data will be released from either the U.S. or Canada, leaving the currency pair influenced by U.S. dollar and crude oil price dynamics.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are trying to recover from lower levels but have not yet confirmed a positive shift. Therefore, before positioning for further gains, it would be prudent to wait for some additional strength beyond the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA), near the round level of 1.3600. Strength beyond this level could help the pair climb to the next barrier around the 1.3620 level. The subsequent upward movement could continue toward the 1.3700 round level.

This image is no longer relevant

On the other hand, the 1.3550 level will protect against an immediate decline, below which the USD/CAD pair could slip back to the psychological level of 1.3500. A convincing break below this level would indicate that the recent rebound observed over the past two weeks has exhausted itself, exposing the 1.3440 level or the lowest level seen in March, which was reached last month.

This image is no longer relevant

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis – March 18th The wave structure for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous yet generally clear. At present, there is a high probability that a long-term downward trend is forming. Wave 5 has taken
Chin Zhao
19:45 2025-03-18 +02:00
1570
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis – March 18th The wave structure on the four-hour chart is at risk of transforming into a more complex formation. A new downward wave structure began forming on September 25, taking the shape
Chin Zhao
19:43 2025-03-18 +02:00
1600
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

WTI Gains Support from Rising Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

For the third consecutive day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is attracting buyers. Currently, the commodity is trading slightly above the key psychological level of $68.00, having gained over
Irina Yanina 18:24 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen continues to decline intraday, pushing USD/JPY close to the key psychological level of 150.00, with the pair setting a new two-day high around 149.87. Global market
Irina Yanina 18:21 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Market catches fish in muddy water

Chaos in the White House's economic policy has pushed the S&P 500 to the brink. The broad stock index briefly entered correction territory before rebounding with two consecutive days
Marek Petkovich 11:18 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Positive Data from China and Rising Risk Appetite Support a Bullish Outlook for the Kiwi – NZD/USD Analysis

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has gained another strong bullish factor as the ANX Commodity Price Index recorded another solid increase in February, rising 3.0% month-on-month (m/m) and 14% year-on-year
Kuvat Raharjo 10:36 2025-03-18 UTC+2

No Major Surprises Expected from the Fed Meeting (Anticipating a Sharp Drop in EUR/USD and Continued Cautious Gold Price Growth)

Markets are experiencing turmoil due to the risk of a U.S. economic recession. Although Treasury Secretary Bessent attempts to reassure investors by calling the market "correction" a healthy process, these
Pati Gani 08:48 2025-03-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, but none of them are significant. For example, the Eurozone and Germany will publish ZEW economic sentiment indices, which
Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-03-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 18: The Pound Persistently Climbs Upward

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to lean toward growth. There were no significant events in the UK throughout the day, while in the U.S., only one report
Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 18: The Break is Over

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement. Since there was very little news on this day, and none of it was significant, volatility remained quite low, preventing
Paolo Greco 04:04 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to be on the defensive against the U.S. dollar, as global risk sentiment improves following new stimulus measures announced by China over the weekend. This
Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

USD/CAD: The Pair Starts the New Week with Caution

The USD/CAD pair begins the new week with caution, fluctuating within a narrow range above 1.4350 and remaining above the 50-day SMA. However, fundamental factors suggest potential downside risks. Positive
Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 00:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
Global Market Dynamics: China, the US and AI Are Driving New Trends
06:16 2025-03-18
News
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-03-20 UTC--4
No Major Surprises Expected from the Fed Meeting (Anticipating a Sharp Drop in EUR/USD and Continued Cautious Gold Price Growth)
09:48 2025-03-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
GBP/USD – March 18: Will the FOMC Help the Dollar?
11:03 2025-03-18
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-03-18 UTC--4
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 18: The Break is Over
05:04 2025-03-18
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-03-19 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 18. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:00 2025-03-18
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.