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01.03.2024 09:24 AM
Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 1, 2024
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Bitcoin's Surge Amidst ETF Inflows: A Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Key Takeaways:

  1. Bitcoin registers a strong gain surpassing the $60,000 mark, nearing its 2021 historical highs.
  2. The influx of over $6.7 billion into ETFs, notably from BlackRock and Fidelity, is driving the cryptocurrency's growth.
  3. Technical indicators suggest a potential pull-back, with a predominantly bullish sentiment still present among investors.

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Fundamental Analysis:

The recent surge in Bitcoin's value can be significantly attributed to the inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which have been the catalyst for the cryptocurrency's ascent past the $60,000 threshold. As Bitcoin inches closer to its all-time highs set in 2021, we witness a substantial injection of capital into the market, notably a net positive influx of over $6.7 billion, even when considering outflows from Grayscale.

Within a span of just 32 trading days since the launch of their respective ETFs, BlackRock has amassed Bitcoin worth over $6.5 billion, closely followed by Fidelity with an impressive accumulation of over $4.4 billion. The momentum continues as the inflows into BlackRock iShares have recently broken their previous records, indicating an escalating dynamic interest from investors in the digital currency.

Technical Analysis for BTC/USD as of March 1, 2024:

The technical analysis landscape for BTC/USD indicates a momentary pause in the rally, hinting at a forthcoming pull-back. Despite this, the underlying sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish. Here's a closer look at the indicators:

  • Technical Indicators: Out of 23 technical indicators, 10 signal a 'Buy', while 13 suggest a 'Sell'. This presents a mixed sentiment, albeit with a slight inclination towards a bearish outlook in the immediate term.
  • Moving Averages: A stronger signal comes from the moving averages, where 15 out of 18 are indicating a 'Buy', suggesting that the upward trend is still intact in the medium to long term.
  • Sentiment Scoreboard: The general market sentiment is bullish, with 73% in favor compared to 27% bearish. This sentiment has been consistent over the last week and the preceding three days, further cementing the optimistic stance among traders.

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Market Scenarios:

  • Bullish Scenario: Should the inflows into ETFs continue at their current or increased pace, Bitcoin is poised to challenge and potentially breach its historical highs. This scenario is supported by the strong bullish sentiment and the majority of moving averages favoring a 'Buy'.
  • Bearish Scenario: Despite the bullish backdrop, the technical indicators signal caution. If the market responds to the immediate sell signals from the technical indicators, a pull-back could occur, potentially providing a correction to the recent rapid gains.

In conclusion, while the fundamental factors provide robust support for Bitcoin's valuation, the technical analysis advises traders to remain vigilant for signs of a short-term retracement. Investors are encouraged to weigh both the potential for continued growth driven by ETF inflows against the possibility of a natural market correction as signaled by the technical indicators.

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Important Notice

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Sebastian Seliga,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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